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Donald Trump Appears Doomed to Inherit the Next Recession
" ... President-elect Donald J. Trump may be the one left holding the bag when the next recession hits because of years of credit expansion. ...
"Because, we were for a long time, 7 years, without a recession in the US," he continued. "We are overdue one. And some of the data that's been coming out in the last couple of quarters suggests that we are very close to one."
Following the 2008 financial crisis, central bankers unleashed ultra easy monetary policy. One of the efforts involved the Federal Reserve making large-scale purchases of bonds, aka quantitative easing. In the eight years since the crisis, interest rates remain at or near zero, and in some parts of the world they're negative. ...
"It seems to me at the grassroots the consumer is not doing too well. As goes consumption, so goes the US economy. I think [Trump] definitely needs to be weary of this." ...
"Even though he has control of the House, control of Congress. It takes a while to get these things through. I would be surprised if, with the exception of a few token projects, they get anything up and running until the end of 2017," he said, adding, "Realistically, people jumping in day one to buy copper, for example, up 6% because of this is a little too premature I think there's too much uncertainty around this to place all of your bets right now."
On election night, as it became clear that Trump would win, Dow Jones Industrial futures dropped 5%. Overnight, those futures roared back to finish the day up 6%. Investors seem to interpret a Trump presidency as a positive for the market.
Williams expects that there will be volatility.
"Any market that goes down 5% and up 6% on the same news is inherently unstable."... "
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