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RAOUL PAL: History shows there's a 100% chance of a recession for Trump
" ... "I recently noted that since 1910, the US economy is either in recession or enters a recession within twelve months in every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency... effecting a 100% chance of recession for the new President," he wrote in a copy of GMI posted below.
For now, history suggests the odds of a recession for Trump are 100%. And while that probability may change, it's still going to be "extremely high", according to Pal.
For now, the stock market been rallying since Trump won, while money has been fleeing the bond market.
"Should you really be betting on growth and inflation for 2017? I very much doubt it. I think that the current euphoria for equities and hatred for bonds is going to be exactly the wrong trade for 2017," Pal wrote.
Pal, a Goldman Sachs alum, previously co-managed GLG's global macro fund, one of the largest in the world. He retired in 2004 at age 36. In addition to authoring GMI, he's also co-founder of RealVision Television, an online subscription financial-news service. ... "
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